Michael Oliver: The Blowoff Top is Here

Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.

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Michael discusses the bubbles in the equity markets, and the S&P indicates a top while momentum is waning. Bear markets typically begin with a gradual arm-wrestling decline and often no crashes, which he expects will occur. Michaels proprietary volatility indicators are now showing a similar pattern that we saw in 2008.

Michael believes we have already seen the blowoff top, and that phase seems to be over. Many momentum structures are signaling a shift in the markets and most investors have yet to notice. He expects a regular arduous bear market with a series of declines and no crashes. Once this occurs, the Fed will likely cancel all talk of tapering. They will be unable to push the markets higher due to the amount of monetary expansion globally.

Gold and silver are both building out structures for their next move, which he thinks will be significant. We’re going to see considerable capital flows from the broader markets into the metals. Investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the value of their money, and that will drive non-traditional investors to gold.

He expects the miners to snap back as soon as the momentum in gold and silver shifts. Finally, he makes predictions for the next couple of years for gold and silver, along with where he expects treasuries and commodities to head overall.

Commodities are reflecting inflation, and he explains why investors should exclude steel and lumber. The broader commodity complex is at the same stage as in the late-1970s.

Lastly, he breaks down where the dollar is likely to head from here and some potential targets for the dollar index.